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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS MT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from parts
of the northern Rockies/Plains eastward into the Midwest and Great
Lakes regions on Monday. Large hail and damaging winds should be the
main threats.

...Midwest/Great Lakes Region...

Early this morning, satellite imagery suggests two distinct
short-wave troughs are progressing through the upper ridge across
the northern/central Plains region. Each of these features will
likely contribute to scattered robust convection that should spread
across the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region. Multiple
thunderstorm clusters are ongoing across the Dakotas into eastern NE
at 0530z. This activity will propagate into MN/IA early in the
period as LLJ is drawn into this region in response to the
progressive short waves. Flattening height field across MN/WI, and a
strengthening LLJ across the Great Lakes during the latter half of
the period, suggest multiple warm-advection thunderstorm clusters
should advance downstream as air mass recovery contributes to
buoyancy for robust updrafts. While deep-layer flow/shear would
seemingly support supercell structures, storm mode will likely be
larger clusters with the possibility for one or more MCSs. Damaging
wind/hail are the primary threats if this scenario does unfold.

...MT into the northern High Plains...

Upper ridge is forecast to build north across the Plains later today
as upper troughing holds near the Pacific Coast. Latest model
guidance continues to suggest seasonally strong southwesterly 500mb
flow will extend across the northern Great Basin into central MT.
While broad height rises are expected across the SLGT Risk region, a
weak disturbance may approach western MT by peak heating. Strong
surface heating across western MT should aid buoyancy within a moist
boundary layer maintained by weak surface ridging over the western
Dakotas. Isolated supercells should develop by mid-late afternoon
over the higher terrain near HLN then spread/develop east toward the
lower Plains region. Hail/wind should be noted with this activity as
it propagates toward the western Dakotas. Some clustering is
possible as convection spreads into eastern MT.

..Darrow/Karstens.. 07/04/2022