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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur Tuesday
across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Ohio
Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. Large hail and damaging winds appear to be
the main threats.

...Lower Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...
A co*plex and messy forecast scenario is apparent across these
regions on Tuesday. A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms may
be ongoing at the start of the period Tuesday morning across parts
of the Midwest/Ohio Valley. This activity should be associated with
a weak mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to progress
eastward across the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic through the day.
It remains unclear whether the morning convection will restrengthen
as it crosses the Appalachians and reaches the coastal Mid-Atlantic
by late Tuesday afternoon. Regardless, most guidance suggests that
moderate instability will develop downstream through the day as
diurnal heating occurs and low-level moisture returns northward.
Enhanced mid-level flow should also be present to foster around
30-40+ kt of deep-layer shear, which will support organized
updrafts. Any convection that can develop in this regime will have
the potential to beco*e severe and pose a threat for both damaging
winds and hail. Confidence remains fairly low in the details of
convective evolution and placement through Tuesday night. Still,
some guidance shows one or more bowing clusters strengthening across
parts of MD/VA by late Tuesday afternoon.

Convective potential in the wake of the morning thunderstorms across
the OH Valley also remains unclear. Regardless, moderate to strong
instability should develop along/south of a front across Lower MI
and vicinity by peak afternoon heating. If robust convection can
develop across this region, it would pose a threat for mainly
damaging winds and large hail. Some guidance suggests a threat for
one or more bowing clusters across the OH Valley Tuesday
evening/night. Have accordingly expanded the Slight Risk for
hail/wind to enco*pass more of the OH Valley into southern Lower MI.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Midwest...
There may be a small cluster of mainly elevated thunderstorms
ongoing Tuesday morning across parts of the northern Plains. There
is some chance that this convection will persist as it develops
southeastward across SD and vicinity through Tuesday morning. If
this activity can reach greater instability along/south of a front
across eastern SD into southern MN, it would pose a greater threat
for severe/damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening as it spreads
east-southeastward across the Midwest. Additional thunderstorms may
form along/near the front across southern MN/northern IA into
southern WI/northern IL. Large-scale ascent appears nebulous at best
across these areas, but strong to very strong instability and
sufficiently strong deep-layer shear will support robust/severe
convection with any thunderstorms that can form or move into this
region. Have therefore increased severe hail/wind probabilities
across this Midwest to account for this potential.

Otherwise, yet another day of active thunderstorm development is
forecast across the northern Rockies into the northern/central
Plains. An upper ridge will remain prominent over much of the
Plains, but multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations should
spread east-northeastward across these regions through the period.
Initially high-based convection over the higher terrain should
eventually reach greater instability over the adjacent northern High
Plains by late Tuesday afternoon. Isolated to scattered supercells
capable of producing both large hail and severe winds gusts may
occur as deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt is forecast. Some clustering
of convection may also occur, particularly near a front that should
be draped over parts of southern SD into NE.

..Gleason.. 07/04/2022