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Mesoscale Discussion 1351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 PM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Areas affected...Nebraska...Northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427...

Valid 040200Z - 040400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of
central Nebraska and northern Kansas over the next few hours. Wind
damage and isolated large hail will be the primary threats. The
severe potential may increase to the east of WW 427 as cells move
toward the eastern edge of the watch. For this reason, new watch
issuance may be needed later this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from North Platte,
Nebraska shows two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms. The
first is east of McCook, and the second is to the west-northwest of
North Platte. These two clusters are located along the western edge
of a pocket of strong instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE
in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. In addition, the 00Z sounding at
North Platte has moderate deep-layer shear, with 0-3 km lapse rate
near 8.5 C/km. This will be favorable for downdraft acceleration
associated with organized multicells that produce damaging wind
gusts. The deep-layer shear also appears strong enough to support a
potential for supercells and large hail. The severe threat should
gradually transition eastward into east-central Nebraska over the
next 2 to 3 hours, where additional weather watch issuance may be
needed.

..Broyles.. 07/04/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...to*...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   42529967 42460086 42470146 42340174 42010187 41560177
            40950140 40480097 39980016 39439920 39179869 39039838
            39099732 39239699 39669679 40029675 40559701 40989720
            41529715 42149747 42529809 42589869 42529967