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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a prominent upper
ridge will remain over much of the central CONUS through at least
late this week. Appreciable severe potential should be tied to
low-amplitude shortwave troughs that will advance around the
periphery of the upper ridge from the northern Rockies/Plains into
the Midwest, OH Valley, and occasionally the Mid-Atlantic. One such
perturbation, which appears in guidance to be convectively
augmented, may move from the Dakotas across parts of the Upper
Midwest on Day 4/Wednesday. A moist and rather unstable airmass
should be present along/south of a front across these regions
Wednesday afternoon. Depending on the presence of morning convection
and the evolution of the subtle shortwave trough, an MCS capable of
producing severe/damaging winds may evolve from parts of the
northern Plains into the Midwest through Wednesday evening. There is
not enough confidence in the placement and track of this potential
MCS to include a 15% severe area at this time, but this will be
reevaluated in later outlooks.

Thereafter, the overall predictability in organized severe
thunderstorms appears low. Some severe potential will probably exist
each day through at least Day 6/Friday across portions the northern
Rockies and adjacent High Plains, as convection forms over the
higher terrain and spreads eastward into a more unstable airmass. As
multiple weak mid-level perturbations round the crest of the upper
ridge, additional MCS/bowing clusters capable of producing damaging
winds may also occur from the Upper Midwest into the OH
Valley/Mid-Atlantic vicinity through the end of the week. But,
confidence remains low in the placement and evolution of these
features at this extended time frame. By next weekend, a stronger
mid-level shortwave trough may impinge on the upper ridge as it
moves across the northern Rockies/Plains into central Canada. Trends
will be monitored for an increased severe potential across this
region around Day 7/Saturday into Day 8/Sunday.