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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late Sunday afternoon
through the evening over central and into eastern Montana.  Severe
gusts are the primary risk.

...Northern Plains/Central Plains...

Upper ridge will be shunted into the northern High Plains later
today as West Coast trough advances inland during the latter half of
the period. This evolution should result in stronger 500mb flow
translating across the Great Basin into central MT by late afternoon
as weak height falls develop across the northern Rockies.
Significant meridional nature to the mid/high-level flow suggests a
lee surface low/trough will hold close to the northern Rockies,
which will maintain easterly boundary-layer flow across the Plains
of MT into the higher terrain of central MT. 

Early this morning, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across the
western Dakotas. This activity should propagate southeast through
sunrise as LLJ focuses into the upper Red River Valley early in the
period. This activity will likely not dissipate within a
warm-advection regime and some threat for wind/hail may acco*pany
storms as they spread/develop into west-central MN. Scattered
convection may also trail along/north of a surface front near the
ND/SD border which should reinforce the easterly low-level flow deep
into MT.

While this easterly low-level flow may retard boundary-layer heating
a bit, it appears convection should readily develop over the higher
terrain of southwest MT ahead of the aforementioned mid-level speed
max. This activity will spread/develop northeast into an environment
that will be favorably sheared for supercells and long-lived
updrafts. Latest thinking is multiple thunderstorm clusters should
eventually mature over central MT within a thermodynamic environment
favorable for severe, damaging winds. While hail can be expected,
especially early in the convective cycle, it appears bow-type
structures may beco*e the more dominant storm mode, which will lead
to damaging winds as convection spreads downstream.

Farther south, latest water-vapor imagery and model guidance suggest
a weak disturbance will progress across CO into the central High
Plains by early afternoon. Isolated/scattered convection is expected
to develop ahead of this feature, and ample moisture/buoyancy will
reside across this portion of the Plains such that robust updrafts
are expected. Hail/wind are the primary threats with this
afternoon/evening convection.

...Carolinas...

Eastern Canadian/Northeast US trough will shift east early in the
period. Even so, modest northwesterly flow will extend across VA
into eastern NC in conjunction with a surface front that will settle
into this region. Strong surface heating and a boundary draped
across NC into SC should favor a zone of scattered convection that
could generate locally damaging winds.

..Darrow/Squitieri.. 07/03/2022