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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible from
parts of the northern Rockies/Plains eastward into the Midwest and
Great Lakes regions on Monday. Large hail and damaging winds should
be the main threats.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A mid-level anticyclone should remain centered over the Southeast
Monday, with upper ridging extending northward over much of the
Plains. Rich low-level moisture will likely be present along/south
of a weak front that will extend from parts of the northern Plains
into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Most guidance suggests that
scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing across parts of the Midwest
Monday morning. This activity should be aided by modest low-level
warm advection and a low-amplitude mid-level perturbation. An
isolated threat for hail and strong/gusty winds may persist with
this convection as it spreads generally eastward Monday morning.

In the wake of the morning convection, there is still considerable
uncertainty regarding the placement and overall coverage of severe
thunderstorms across the Midwest Monday afternoon/evening. Mid-level
heights are forecast to remain generally neutral or even rise
slightly downstream of the upper ridge over the northern/central
Plains. Mid-level temperatures are also expected to modestly
increase. Still, even with these potentially limiting factors,
moderate to strong instability will likely develop along/south of a
front and outflow from the morning convection. If additional
thunderstorms can develop, they would probably beco*e severe fairly
quickly given the favorable thermodynamic environment and moderate
to strong effective bulk shear also present.

The primary question is where these robust thunderstorms and
possibly a small bowing cluster may develop late Monday afternoon
and evening, as large-scale ascent will remain nebulous. Even so,
have introduced a Slight Risk for damaging winds and large hail from
southeastern MN/eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL, where
there is a somewhat better signal in guidance for thunderstorm
redevelopment, potentially associated with another weak mid-level
perturbation. But, this remains a fairly low-confidence forecast,
and adjustments to the spatial extent of the Slight Risk may be
needed as mesoscale details beco*e clearer.

...Northern Rockies/Plains...
A large-scale upper ridge will remain in place over the Plains
through the period. Another weak mid-level perturbation should round
the apex of the upper ridge and move east-northeastward across the
northern Rockies and Plains through Monday night. Initially
high-based convection that forms over the higher terrain should
eventually spread eastward into the adjacent High Plains. As this
convection encounters greater low-level moisture and instability
along/south of a front, it should strengthen and pose a threat for
both large hail and severe wind gusts given sufficient deep-layer
shear for organized severe thunderstorms. A mix of multicells and
supercells appears possible. This severe threat should persist into
eastern MT and parts of the Dakotas through Monday evening/night,
with potentially more isolated coverage with eastward extent into
the Dakotas.

..Gleason.. 07/03/2022