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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Jul 03 2022

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Tuesday across
parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, and portions of the
northern/central Plains.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Downstream of a prominent upper ridge over the Plains, a
convectively enhanced, low-amplitude shortwave trough should advance
eastward from the Great Lakes across parts of the OH Valley and
Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Modestly enhanced mid-level winds will
acco*pany this shortwave trough, and sufficient deep-layer shear for
organized updrafts should overspread these regions through the day.
Current expectations are that diurnal heating of a moist low-level
airmass will act to destabilize the environment ahead of one or more
clusters of thunderstorms that should be ongoing Tuesday morning
across some portion of the Midwest/Great Lakes. Convection should
increase in coverage and intensity Tuesday afternoon as it spreads
eastward across parts of the OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.
Damaging winds will be a concern with any clusters that can develop,
but isolated large hail may also occur with any discrete
thunderstorms. The eastern extent of the severe risk remains
somewhat uncertain, as low-level moisture may be somewhat more
limited towards the Atlantic Coast.

...Northern/Central Plains...
A large-scale upper ridge will remain over much of the Plains on
Tuesday. To the north of a surface boundary, yet another day of
low-level upslope flow should occur across the northern High Plains.
High-based convection that initially forms over the higher terrain
is expected to spread into the northern/central High Plains through
Tuesday evening. Diurnal heating of the rich low-level moisture and
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates should support moderate
to locally strong instability by late Tuesday afternoon. Deep-layer
shear should also be strong enough to foster a mix of multicells and
supercells. Both large hail and severe/damaging wind gusts may occur
as convection spreads eastward through Tuesday evening. In addition,
most guidance suggests a stalled front will be in place across NE
into southern SD and vicinity, with strong instability to its south.
Even though this region will be on the southern extent of
appreciable mid-level flow, there may still be modestly organized
clusters of thunderstorms with some severe threat that develop near
and south of the front.

..Gleason.. 07/03/2022