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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are expected across southern New England
into the Mid-Atlantic States through early evening.  Scattered large
hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in the northern Great
Plains from the late afternoon into tonight.

...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.

..Smith.. 07/02/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022/

...Southern New England to Mid-Atlantic States...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop later
this afternoon along a northeast/southwest-oriented surface cold
front from southwest New England into PA and a lee trough extending
south-southwest into western VA. Stronger deep-layer shear will be
confined to the southern New England to NY portion amid predominant
southwesterly flow. Progressively weaker shear will be noted with
southern extent into VA, but this will be co*pensated by larger
buoyancy given greater boundary-layer heating with MLCAPE near 2000
J/kg. The overall setup will likely foster a mix of transient
supercells and multicell clusters spreading towards the coast,
before weakening during the early evening. Scattered damaging winds
will be the primary threat, with isolated severe hail also possible.

...Northern Great Plains...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the late afternoon along a modest baroclinic zone and weak surface
trough near the MT/ND/SK border area. This initial activity should
be higher-based amid MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg as surface dew points
mix down into the upper 40s to low 50s. While low-level winds will
be weak and the region will remain in close proximity to a
low-amplitude mid-level ridge, adequate elongation of the mid to
upper hodograph should foster a few supercells. Clustering into a
small MCS is likely this evening as storms spread towards greater PW
emanating northwest from NE into SD and a southerly low-level jet
strengthens in advance of the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough.
This may yield a persistent, although probably isolated, severe
threat into the overnight towards central SD. A mix of large hail
and severe wind gusts is anticipated. 

...Lower OH Valley to KS/OK...
An MCV over northwest MO will drift east to the north of a
predominately west/east-oriented baroclinic zone across the Lower OH
Valley towards the KS/OK border. While mid-level lapse rates will be
modest, robust boundary-layer heating to the south of the co*posite
front/outflow boundaries should foster a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE. While background vertical shear will be weak, some
enhancement of mid-level westerlies attendant to the MCV should be
sufficient for a few multicell clusters. Confidence is low in
whether a more organized cluster may develop given the myriad of
potential boundary-interaction processes and upscale cold-pool
aggregation. A broad cat 1/MRGL mainly for the threat of isolated
damaging winds remains warranted. 

...Interior Northwest...
Increasing large-scale ascent owing to approach of a shortwave
trough from the northeast Pacific will be favorably timed with the
diurnal heating cycle to yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across central/eastern OR towards the southern ID Panhandle.
Forecast soundings suggest that stronger speed shear will generally
be confined to the upper portion of the modest buoyancy profile amid
40s to perhaps low 50s surface dew points. A few discrete cells may
acquire transient, mid-level updraft rotation, supporting a threat
for marginally severe hail. Otherwise, isolated severe wind gusts
should be the main hazard given a well-mixed environment.

...c*astal NC...
The expected asymmetrical nature of deep convection associated with
TC Colin and weak low-level kinematic fields for tornado potential
over land suggest that a weak/brief tornado threat appears
negligible.