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Mesoscale Discussion 1325
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Areas affected...Southern/eastern Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 021912Z - 022115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms capable of isolated damaging wind and hail
are possible this afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection is gradually increasing across portions of
southern and eastern Maine, along and ahead of a cold front. Diurnal
heating of a relatively moist boundary layer has resulted in
weak-to-moderate destabilization, with MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg noted
per recent mesoanalyses. Convergence along the front is not
particularly strong, which could limit the coverage of robust
storms, but moderate midlevel flow and deep-layer shear (as noted on
the KGYX VWP) will support organized convection with any sustained
cells/clusters. 

Relatively steep low-level lapse rates will support a localized
damaging wind risk with the strongest storms, while rather strong
mid/upper-level shear and sufficient instability will support an
isolated hail threat. At this time, the severe threat is expected to
remain too isolated for watch issuance.

..Dean/Grams.. 07/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON   44247016 45076896 46466790 45936729 44936702 44146815
            43626940 43187050 43347066 43867082 44247016