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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur from parts of
the northern Rockies/Plains eastward into the Midwest and Great
Lakes regions on Monday.

...Northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes...
At least scattered thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Monday
morning across parts of the Upper Midwest associated with modest
low-level warm advection. This activity may pose an isolated severe
threat for hail and strong/gusty winds Monday morning as it
continues eastward. A weak mid-level perturbation also associated
with this convection should continue eastward across the Midwest
into the Great Lakes through Monday evening. If sufficient low-level
moisture can return northward ahead of the morning thunderstorms,
they could eventually beco*e surface based as instability gradually
increases across the warm sector. Even though mid-level flow should
remain fairly modest, enough deep-layer shear is forecast to support
updraft organization and some severe potential. Current forecast
evolution and timing of the subtle mid-level shortwave trough may be
a little too fast for robust diurnal destabilization to occur ahead
of it. Regardless, have included a fairly broad Marginal Risk across
much of the Midwest into the upper Great Lakes region to account for
one or more convective clusters that could develop and beco*e
capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging winds.

Farther west across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains,
it appears that an upper ridge will remain in place for much of the
period. Another weak mid-level perturbation should round the apex of
the upper ridge across these regions through Monday night. Initially
high-based convection should spread eastward from the northern
Rockies into the adjacent High Plains. As this convection encounters
greater low-level moisture and instability, it should strengthen and
pose a threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts given
sufficient deep-layer shear for organized severe thunderstorms. This
severe threat should persist into eastern MT and parts of the
Dakotas through Monday evening/night. A Slight Risk has been
included across these areas where confidence is greatest that robust
convection will develop.

..Gleason.. 07/02/2022