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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday
from parts of the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains.
Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats.

...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central Plains...
An upper ridge should remain over much of the Rockies and adjacent
High Plains on Sunday, while an upper low persists along/near the
coast of the Pacific Northwest. Multiple weak mid-level
perturbations should round the apex of the upper ridge through the
period. Even though large-scale ascent associated with these subtle
shortwave troughs will be modest, there should be enough forcing to
support scattered thunderstorm development by Sunday afternoon
across the higher terrain of the northern Rockies. This initial
activity should be high-based and generally in a limited low-level
moisture and weak instability environment. But, strong deep-layer
shear may still allow for updraft organization and an isolated
threat for both severe wind gusts and some hail.

As these thunderstorms spread eastward off the higher terrain and
into the adjacent northern/central High Plains, they should
eventually encounter greater low-level moisture along/east of a
surface lee trough. A weak surface front should also extend over
eastern MT into ND. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should
overspread parts of the warm sector across the northern/central
Plains. Moderate to strong instability should develop from parts of
eastern MT into the Dakotas and NE by peak afternoon heating.
Effective bulk shear across this region appears sufficient for a mix
of multicells and supercells. Both large hail and severe/damaging
wind gusts appear possible as thunderstorms move generally eastward
through Sunday evening. A tornado or two also appears possible
along/south of the weak front in ND where low-level shear may be
locally maximized, especially with any supercell that can be
sustained. Have introduced a Slight Risk for hail/wind from parts of
the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains, where
confidence has increased in isolated to scattered severe
thunderstorms occurring.

...Southern Virginia into the Carolinas...
A weak cold front should be present across southern VA at the start
of the period Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should develop through Sunday afternoon as this boundary moves
slowly southward into NC/SC through the day. This region will be on
the southern periphery of modestly enhanced mid-level westerlies
present over the Mid-Atlantic. Although mid-level flow will likely
remain fairly weak over southern VA and the Carolinas, there should
still be sufficient deep-layer shear for modest convective
organization. Moderate instability should also develop and promote
robust updrafts as diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass
occurs. Loosely organized thunderstorm clusters capable of producing
occasional damaging winds should spread southward from southern VA
into the Carolinas Sunday afternoon and early evening.

..Gleason.. 07/02/2022