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Mesoscale Discussion 1314
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022

Areas affected...Western/northern MD...Eastern WV...Southern
PA...Northern VA...Northern DE...DC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011559Z - 011830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon, with a threat of isolated damaging wind
gusts and possibly some hail.

DISCUSSION...c*nvection has gradually been increasing late this
morning across southern PA into eastern WV, within a zone of richer
moisture in the 925-850 mb layer depicted in the 12Z PIT sounding
and recent objective mesoanalyses. Diurnal heating and continued
low-level moisture transport will support an increase in
thunderstorm coverage and intensity this afternoon, as convection
gradually spreads eastward toward the I-95 corridor. MLCAPE
increasing above 2000 J/kg will support vigorous updrafts, though
marginal effective shear (generally in the 20-30 kt range) will
limit storm organization to some extent. Steepening low-level lapse
rates will support a threat of locally damaging wind gusts this
afternoon, and isolated hail will also be possible with the
strongest cells. With storm organization expected to remain rather
limited, watch issuance is considered unlikely at this time.

..Dean/Grams.. 07/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   40318004 40797727 40687595 40387568 39597557 39257544
            38777663 38507779 38257883 38347938 38657995 39108031
            39768044 40318004