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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper ridge is forecast to build and persist over much
of the central CONUS through the extended forecast period. Organized
severe convective potential each day will likely remain tied to
multiple low-amplitude perturbations aloft rotating around the
northern periphery of the upper ridge, mainly from the northern
Rockies/Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. One such feature may
focus some severe potential across parts of the northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains on Day 4/Monday.

Rich low-level moisture and moderate to locally strong instability
should be present in a narrow corridor from the northern Plains into
the Midwest and OH Valley. Depending on the evolution of the subtle
mid-level shortwave troughs, multiple MCS/bowing clusters moving
east-southeastward along the instability axis appear possible most
days next week. If these bowing co*plexes develop, then
severe/damaging winds would be the main threat. Trying to time the
placement of the subtle shortwave troughs and related convection is
difficult at this extended time frame, with limited predictability
overall. Still, if a signal for robust convective development
beco*es clearer in medium-range guidance, then one or more 15%
severe areas may ultimately be needed.