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Mesoscale Discussion 0458
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central Texas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 122007Z - 122200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to increase into the
evening hours across parts of central Texas.

DISCUSSION...One supercell and several additional cells have
developed along and near the dryline in west-central Texas this
afternoon. Storms organization has been slow, likely due to the
convoluted wind profile in the wake of the passing upper-level
trough. However, deep layer flow is expected to improve into this
evening with 45 to 50 knots of effective shear forecast across the
warm sector by 23Z. Additionally, current storm activity is in a
well-mixed airmass with 30+ F temperature-dewpoint spreads and
veered surface flow. As these storms move east, they will encounter
a less mixed airmass with backed surface flow and dewpoints in the
upper 60s. These south-southeasterly surface winds co*bined with
strengthening lower tropospheric flow, will likely result in a
low-level wind profile favorable for tornadoes. Therefore, a tornado
watch will likely be needed east of watch 110 late this afternoon
into the early evening hours.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 04/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   32979753 33019620 32569561 31999551 31309563 30379631
            29529730 29179827 29279845 29939852 30109850 30689833
            30789823 31279801 31839762 32979753