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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Jul 01 2022

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
VIRGINIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday
across parts of Virginia into the Carolinas, and from parts of the
northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains.

...Virginia into the Carolinas...
An upper trough/low should continue moving eastward across eastern
Canada and the Northeast on Sunday. A surface front should be
located over parts of the Mid-Atlantic at the start of the period.
Thunderstorms should develop through the day along/south of this
front across parts of VA into NC/SC. The environment across this
region should be weakly to moderately unstable, with generally
modest mid-level flow. Still, there appears to be enough effective
bulk shear to support some thunderstorm organization. Isolated
damaging winds appear possible as thunderstorms spread southeastward
across these areas through early Sunday evening.

...Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central Plains...
Upper ridging will likely remain prominent over much of the Rockies
and High Plains on Sunday. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow should
be present on the northern periphery of the upper ridge, mainly
across parts of the northern Rockies/Plains. One or more weak
mid-level perturbations cresting the apex of the upper ridge could
support convective development across these regions Sunday
afternoon. Greater low-level moisture and instability is forecast to
be present with eastward extent across the northern/central Plains.
Given the nebulous large-scale forcing, it remains unclear where a
more focused corridor of severe potential may ultimately develop.
Regardless, have opted to include a broad Marginal Risk from the
northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains for the potential
for fairly isolated severe thunderstorms.

..Gleason.. 07/01/2022