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Mesoscale Discussion 1310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Areas affected...northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 302009Z - 302215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form after 21/22Z with a threat of
large hail and a few strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...c*nditions continue to destabilize ahead of the cold
front, with MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Cool midlevel temperatures are
spreading east coincident with the low-amplitude shortwave trough,
and this will steepen midlevel lapse rates aloft further. In
addition, deep-layer shear is increasing to over 55 kt, with
primarily straight hodographs.

Storms are expected to form along the cold front over far northern
WI and into western Upper MI after 21/22Z or coincident with peak
heating. Southwesterly winds increasing to 40 kt at 850 mb will
maintain a theta-e plume ahead of the front, providing a narrow zone
of severe potential for a few hours. The aforementioned long
hodographs will favor cellular activity capable of large hail, with
a few severe gusts possible as well. While low-level shear and SRH
is not very strong, a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out by
virtue of cellular storm mode and steep midlevel lapse rates.

..Jewell/Hart.. 06/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45938656 45158952 44789123 44859187 45109212 45369209
            45689199 46219148 46679037 46868942 46978848 47008718
            46948625 46888516 46798491 46608500 46168605 45938656