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Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO UPPER MICHIGAN....

CORRECTED FOR MISSSPELLING IN SUMMARY

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
are possible today from parts of Kansas to Upper Michigan.

...Upper MI/WI/MN/IA...
Morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front extending from
central MN into northwest KS.  A moderately moist and potentially
unstable air mass is present ahead of the front, although several
areas of clouds are limiting heating.  Most CAM solutions indicate
scattered thunderstorms will form along/ahead of the front over
northern WI/Upper MI by mid-afternoon, in an environment of steep
lapse rates and strong westerly flow aloft.  A few of these cells
will likely beco*e intense, with a risk of damaging wind gusts and
hail for a few hours.  There is considerable uncertainty how far
southwest the risk of strong storms will extend into MN/IA due to
weakening large scale forcing and weaker shear profiles. 
Nevertheless, will maintain ongoing SLGT area.

...c*/KS/NE...
Ample mid-level moisture is present today over CO, along the
southern fringe of stronger westerly flow aloft.  Strong heating
across the plains of eastern CO into western KS/NE will lead to hot
surface temperatures and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. 
Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to
affect this region later today.  Present indications are that meager
boundary-layer moisture will limit the intensity of updrafts or
precipitation cores, but dry-microbursts capable of isolated
damaging wind gusts will be a potential risk.

..Hart.. 06/30/2022