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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Valid 121700Z - 131200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PERMIAN BASIN INTO
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

Minimal changes to the Elevated area based on the latest guidance.
The Critical/Extreme areas remain on track and unchanged. See the
previous discussion for more details.

..Wendt.. 04/12/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022/

...Synopsis...
A potent upper low observed by regional IR/WV imagery early this
morning is currently undergoing rapid deepening across the Central
Rockies. Forecast to rapidly eject eastward onto the Plains by early
afternoon, this trough and an acco*panying 80-90 kt jet streak will
support further intensification of an already strong lee low and
surface wind field across the southern/central Plains. A dryline
trailing the low will bisect a broad warm sector as it mixes east
through the afternoon leaving very dry surface conditions in its
wake. A rare co*bination of exceptionally dry fuels and high-end
meteorological parameter space lends strong confidence in Extremely
Critical fire weather conditions and the possibility of a
significant wildfire event across the southern/central High Plains.

*An outbreak of dangerous wildfire conditions is likely across the
southern and central high Plains Today!*

...West Texas through western Oklahoma and into Kansas...
Latest NWP timing guidance has firmed up solutions on the ejection
of the primary upper trough and associated jet streak across the
Plains. The mid-level system, slightly slower than previous
guidance, should begin to move out over the southern and central
High Plains by mid morning. As strong ascent overspreads the High
Plains, the lee low should continue to deepen peaking below 990 mb
across western NE before quickly moving northeast into the upper
Midwest by tonight. With strong surface pressure falls and the
emergence of the mid and low-level jet, strong surface winds of
30-45 mph and 55+ mph gusts should quickly develop in the southwest
quadrant of the low coincident with the low-level thermal ridge.
Subsidence/mixing beneath the jet, downslope trajectories and
surface temperatures climbing into the 90s F should rapidly decrease
surface RH within the corridor of maximum winds through the
afternoon. By peak heating, surface RH in the mid single digits will
be possible within the broader area of RH less than 10% across the
southern/central High Plains. Peak fire weather conditions are
expected from roughly 18-23z across a southwest to northeast
corridor from western TX through the Panhandles and western OK into
western/central KS where hi-res guidance shows Fosberg index values
over 90.

Some uncertainty exists in the eastern extent of Critical and
Extremely Critical conditions based on model differences with
respect to the dryline. While a tight gradient will exist, strong
winds within the surface pressure trough in the vicinity of the
dryline will likely support Elevated and Critical fire weather
potential. Another concern will be the presence of a fast moving
cold front expected to travel southeast across the Critical area
near sunset. Strong winds along the front as well as a prominent
wind shift to the north/northwest may impact fire direction and
spread rates despite cooling temperatures and slow rising RH.

...Central High Plains...
To the west of the main risk corridor, strong downslope winds are
expected in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. While
uncertainty remains high with respect to surface RH conditions
behind the cooler airmass across western NE and SD, at least a few
hours of very strong northwesterly winds may align with relatively
dry surface conditions amid dry fuels. The Elevated area was
expanded westward to account for at least some fire weather
potential given the magnitude of low-level flow near the strong
surface low.

Across much of the southern/central Plains, fuels states are
exceptionally volatile. ERC values in the 90-95th percentile are
ubiquitous across the southern High Plains with lesser, but still
very dry conditions extending farther north into the central High
Plains. Severe drought, several antecedent days of Critical drying
and numerous reports of large fires over the preceding days shows
fuel beds are extremely receptive to fire starts and spreads. High
confidence exists in several hours of Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions developing beneath the low-level jet core and
thermal ridge axis from west TX, through the Panhandles, western OK,
and into western KS. The overlap of rare meteorological and fuel
parameter space matches well with several Great Plains wildfire
outbreak analogs giving further confidence in significant potential
for a widespread and high-end fire weather outbreak.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...