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Mesoscale Discussion 1305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Areas affected...South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...

Valid 292225Z - 300030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts remain possible with convection across
South Dakota this evening. New severe thunderstorm watch appears
warranted immediately downstream.

DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude, mid-level short-wave trough is
flattening the ridge over eastern WY early this evening. This
feature is dislodging the lee surface trough which has now shifted
into central SD, arcing southwest across the eastern NE Panhandle
into northeast CO. Very hot boundary-layer conditions have developed
along this surface trough and dry adiabatic lower tropospheric lapse
rates are contributing to cloud bases near 600mb where temperatures
are in excess of 100F. Latest radar data suggests scattered
high-based convection over central SD could be slowly organizing as
it approaches the eastern edge of ww414 near PIR. This activity
should spread east of the watch around 2330z and a new watch will
likely be issued.

..Darrow.. 06/29/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON   44580205 45609843 43899766 43060115 44580205