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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND ALSO FOR PARTS OF MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Upper Midwest and Great
Lakes Tuesday afternoon and evening, acco*panied by at least some
risk for severe hail and wind. Thunderstorms capable of isolated
severe wind gusts will also be possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening across parts of Montana.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the Great Lakes
region on Tuesday, while to the west, another trough will move from
the Pacific Northwest towards the northern Rockies. A cold front
associated with the Great Lakes trough will move through parts of
MN/WI, while a weak cold front attendant to the western trough
begins to move through MT. Relatively dry and stable conditions are
expected across much of the CONUS in the wake of an earlier cold
frontal passage across the southern Plains and Southeast, though
some severe thunderstorm potential may be associated with the
passage of the mid/upper-level troughs noted above across parts of
MT and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

..Upper Great Lakes/Midwest...
Diurnal heating and modest low-level moisture transport from the
southwest will support weak to locally moderate destabilization
across parts of WI/MN/IA and upper MI Tuesday afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorm development is possible along/ahead of the cold front
by late afternoon as an embedded shortwave within the larger-scale
upper trough approaches from the northwest. Increasing midlevel
northwesterly flow will support sufficient effective shear for
organized storm potential. A couple of supercells and/or organized
clusters will be possible, with an attendant risk of hail and
locally damaging wind gusts as storms move southeastward across the
region into early evening. The magnitude of the threat will depend
on the extent of low-level moistening and destabilization that can
occur across the region, which remains somewhat uncertain at this
time. 

...Montana...
High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon
across parts of western/central MT, as the mid/upper-level trough
and associated surface trough/weak cold front move through the
region. Instability will generally remain weak (MLCAPE less than 500
J/kg) due to limited low-level moisture, but inverted-v profiles and
increasing deep-layer shear will support outflow-dominant storm
clusters capable of isolated severe wind gusts. This threat may
spread as far as eastern MT Tuesday evening before storms weaken
after sunset.

..Dean.. 06/27/2022