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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
A severe gust or two may occur early this evening in southwest
Arizona. Otherwise, the severe threat should be limited across the
continental U.S. tonight.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will continue to traverse the Great Lakes region
tonight as an upper ridge persists across the rest of the CONUS. A
surface cold front will continue to sag south-southeast from the
Ohio Valley to the Southern Plains, with cooler and drier air
ushering in from behind. Ahead of the surface front, ample moisture
and buoyancy will continue to support scattered thunderstorm
development into the evening hours before waning later tonight.
Meanwhile, mid-level moisture will continue to meander over the
Interior West, supporting ongoing scattered thunderstorms across the
Southwest, with isolated thunderstorms persisting overnight.

...Southwest Arizona...
Multiple pulse-cellular monsoonal storms have recently congealed
across portions of southwest AZ, with resultant outflow boundaries
surging toward the southwest. Ahead of the outflow boundaries, a hot
surface airmass remains in place, with surface temperatures
exceeding 100 F. 23Z RAP forecast soundings show a well-mixed
boundary layer residing ahead of the storms/outflow. As such, storm
outflow may generate enough lift to support the initiation of new
pulse-cellular storms to the international border. Given the very
dry boundary layer, evaporative cooling associated with the stronger
pulses in storm intensity may support a severe gust or two over the
next few hours, warranting the maintenance of Category 1/Marginal
highlights.

..Squitieri.. 06/27/2022