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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE MID SOUTH INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage may occur this afternoon from the Mid South to
the upper Ohio Valley.

...Mid South to the upper OH Valley this afternoon...
A midlevel shortwave trough will move east-southeastward from the
upper MS Valley across the Great Lakes, while an associated surface
cold front moves southeastward across the OH Valley and southward
into the southern Plains.  Convection has been ongoing overnight to
the cool side of the boundary across the southern Plains, and just
ahead of the front across southern IL.  Outflow with the ongoing
MO/IL storms will push the effective front southward into the Mid
South this afternoon, providing a focus for renewed thunderstorm
development.  Farther northeast into the OH Valley, a possibly
differential heating zone may provide a focus for thunderstorm
development this afternoon, modulated by how quickly morning
clouds/convection diminish.  

Vertical shear will remain weak throughout the warm sector ahead of
the cold front, and thermodynamic profiles will be a little more
favorable for pulse-type downbursts with southwestward extent toward
the Mid South.  Overall, the threat for damaging winds should remain
rather on the lower margins of an outlook area, and mainly be
focused from mid-late afternoon.

...TX into the Southwest this afternoon/evening...
Isolated thunderstorm development will be possible along the cold
front this afternoon/evening from west central into north TX.  Gusty
outflow winds will be possible in the deeply mixed environment with
hot surface temperatures, but the threat for severe outflow winds
appears too low to warrant an outlook area.  Otherwise, the monsoon
will persist across the southern Rockies, with relatively cool
temperatures and widespread clouds across much of NM.  On the
western part of the monsoonal moisture plume, scattered
thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain from southeast AZ
northwestward along the Mogollon Rim.  Steering flow off the high
terrain will be weak at best, though very isolated strong-severe
outflow winds may occur with the strongest storms resulting from
outflow collisions.

..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/26/2022