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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2022

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models indicate that blocking will gradually beco*e more prominent
once again, near or just inland of the North American Pacific coast
by late next weekend.  It appears that this may include amplifying
split flow, with large-scale mid-level troughing beco*ing centered
along the U.S. Pacific coast, and ridging near or east of the
Canadian Rockies through the northwest Canadian Arctic latitudes. 
Downstream, deep mid-level troughing may beco*e entrenched across
eastern Canada and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and
Northeast, as a significant embedded low emerging from the Arctic
latitudes slowly digs across and turns east of the Hudson James Bay
vicinity during this period.  Farther south, mid-level ridging will
prevail across much of the Southeast and lower Mississippi Valley
through the Great Plains.

As this flow evolves, it still appears that a plume of warm and
capping elevated mixed-layer air will advect northeast of the
Rockies, toward the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region by mid week,
before beco*ing cut off and suppressed.  It is appearing more
probable that a lack of more substantive low-level moisture return
may preclude widespread strong destabilization, particularly by
Wednesday.  However, somewhat better moisture return into the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity by Thursday, coupled with strengthening
deep-layer wind fields and forcing for ascent on the southern
periphery of cyclonic flow associated with the digging mid-level
low, might contribute to an environment conducive to organized
severe thunderstorm development.

Variability among the model output, among other uncertainties, is
maintaining severe probabilities at less than 15 percent, but it is
also possible that the risk for organized strong to severe
thunderstorms could spread into southern Ontario/Quebec and perhaps
parts of the adjacent Northeast on Friday, ahead of an associated
cold front.

By late next weekend, strengthening southerly mid/upper wind fields,
to the east of the amplifying trough near the Pacific coast, may
also contribute to a risk for severe storms across parts of the
Intermountain West into northern Rockies.  This will be conditioned
upon sufficient low/mid-level moistening and destabilization, which
is currently forecast to remain limited.