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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Monday through Monday night.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that the large-scale mid/upper flow will remain
split across the northeastern Pacific and adjacent northwestern
North America, but the mid-level high initially centered near the
southern Alaska/Yukon border may undergo substantive weakening
during this period.  It does appear that the lingering low within
persistent mid-level troughing to the south may remain fairly
vigorous while gradually accelerating east-northeastward, but the
mid-level cold core likely will remain offshore through early
Tuesday.  
  
Downstream, the westerlies will converge into broad mid/upper
troughing east of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies through the
northern/middle Atlantic Seaboard, with at least a couple of
prominent shorter wavelength perturbations embedded within the
northwesterly to westerly flow.  The leading edge of substantive
acco*panying lower/mid tropospheric cooling and drying is forecast
to advance across the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard while
stalling across the Gulf Coast states.

It still does appear that moderate mixed-layer CAPE (1000-2000 J/kg)
could develop by Monday afternoon in a narrow corridor along/ahead
of the cold front, across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into
the Carolina and perhaps Virginia Piedmont.  This likely will be
aided by insolation within a seasonably moist boundary layer
including surface dew points near 70F.  However, this will be
largely focused within weak deep-layer mean flow and shear, south of
the westerlies, where thermodynamic profiles characterized by
generally modest to weak lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates also
seem likely to minimize the risk for severe weather. 

Isolated/localized downbursts might not be out of the question
across parts of the Southeast, and in scattered diurnal thunderstorm
activity across parts of the West.  However, due to anticipated
rather sparse coverage, severe wind probabilities are being
maintained at less than 5 percent.

..Kerr.. 06/26/2022