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SPC MD 1274

SPC MD 1274

[html]MD 1274 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
       
MD 1274 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0957 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Areas affected...North-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 241457Z - 241600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...As temperatures warm ahead of small storm co*plex, wind
gust potential may increase in a limited area. A watch is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of likely elevated storms continues
east into north-central Minnesota. Effective shear and moisture
decrease to the east. However, based on the 12Z INL sounding,
temperatures that near the mid 80s F would support near-surface
based updrafts. With temperatures just ahead of the southern flank
of this cluster now in the low 80s, there may be a brief window
where damaging wind gusts potential could increase. Marginally
severe hail would be possible with initial updraft pulses, but the
observed 7 C/km lapse rates and weak shear should keep that activity
isolated. Given downstream conditions are not expected to
appreciably improve, a watch is not likely this morning.

..Wendt/Hart.. 06/24/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   48259551 48419534 48259418 47899400 47669413 47669494
            47729556 47909587 48259551


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Source: SPC MD 1274 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1274.html)