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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0737 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWESTERN
MN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with gusts up to 75 mph, very large hail up to
3 inches in diameter, and a couple of tornadoes are expected from
the eastern Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota this afternoon into
tonight.

...Northern Plains and vicinity this afternoon into tonight...
A corridor of low 70s dewpoints persists this morning from southeast
ND into central SD, to the east of a stalled front.  Cyclogenesis is
expected today along the stalled front, as an upstream shortwave
trough moves eastward over MT, and a separate shortwave trough
ejects northeastward from UT/WY.  The front will begin to move
eastward later this evening into tonight in response to the
approaching midlevel troughs, with scattered-numerous thunderstorms
expected along and ahead of the front across the central/eastern
Dakotas into northwest MN.

Surface heating within the moist, pre-frontal air mass, beneath very
steep midlevel lapse rates near 9 C/km, will result in MLCAPE of
3500-4500 J/kg.  Convective inhibition will likewise weaken by mid
afternoon, when thunderstorm development beco*es likely.  The
stronger mid-upper flow will tend to lag west of the cold front, but
should be sufficient for supercells close to the boundary.  The
large CAPE/steep lapse rate environment will support isolated very
large hail up to 3 inches in diameter and a couple of tornadoes with
the supercells, but there will likely be a tendency for fairly quick
upscale growth into clusters/line segments.  Large CAPE will favor
precipitation loaded downdrafts and large DCAPE will favor intense
downdrafts, with the potential for swaths of damaging winds with
occasional significant (75 mph) severe outflow gusts late this
afternoon into early tonight as storms spread eastward from the
Dakotas into MN.

Other clusters of more high-based storms are expected to form
farther southwest across the central Rockies, and some of this
convection will move into the High Plains this evening in
association with the ejecting UT/WY shortwave trough.  These storms
could be maintained long enough to reach the richer moisture/larger
CAPE in the vicinity of the stalled front, where large hail will
beco*e more of a threat.

...Western GA into FL this afternoon...
A surface trough from western GA into north FL, along with daytime
heating and local sea breeze circulations, will help focus
thunderstorm development by early-mid afternoon.  Strong surface
heating/mixing with hot afternoon temperatures, as well
boundary-layer dewpoints of 70-76 F, will support MLCAPE near 3000
J/kg this afternoon along the surface trough.  The strong surface
heating will also drive steep low-level lapse rates, and DCAPE at or
above 1000 J/kg will favor occasional damaging gusts with downbursts
in south-southwest moving clusters of storms this afternoon/evening.

..Thompson/Jewell.. 06/24/2022