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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
OHIO...ADJACENT NORTHERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK (STATE)...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the middle and upper Ohio
Valley into the lower Great Lakes region late Sunday afternoon and
evening, posing at least some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis..
Models indicate that blocking will persist across the northeastern
Pacific vicinity through this period.  At mid/upper levels, the high
may beco*e a bit more prominent while shifting toward the southern
Alaska/Yukon border vicinity.  The low to its south may slowly
weaken and begin to shift toward the northern Pacific coast. 
However, short wave ridging likely will be maintained across much of
the Pacific Northwest.

Within the northern branch of the split downstream flow, a couple of
significant short wave perturbations are forecast to remain
progressive, within northwesterly to westerly flow around an
elongated vortex centered east through north of Hudson Bay.  While
one begins to dig into the Canadian Prairies, it appears that the
lead impulse may begin to split into smaller perturbations, with one
digging through the Great Lakes region during the latter half of the
period.  As this occurs, cool surface ridging is forecast to
continue shifting southeastward through much of the interior of the
U.S., and mid/upper ridging may beco*e increasingly suppressed to
the east the Rockies.

...Southern Great Plains into lower Great Lakes region...
In advance of the primary surface cold frontal zone, a narrow
corridor of seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content may
contribute to sizable CAPE with daytime heating.  The largest CAPE
likely will remain confined to the south of the westerlies, where
forcing to support thunderstorm development remains more unclear. 
However, in advance of the digging short wave trough,
destabilization, near/ahead of the deeper surface troughing forecast
across parts of the mid/upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes
by late Sunday afternoon, may beco*e sufficient to support vigorous
thunderstorms.  While low-level wind fields may remain weak, it is
possible that mid-level flow could beco*e marginally conducive to
organizing convection posing a risk for potentially damaging wind
gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/24/2022