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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts, very large hail,
and a couple of tornadoes are possible across the northern
Plains/upper Midwest region this afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
co*plex upper troughing -- co*prised of several smaller-scale
disturbances -- is forecast to move eastward across the
Intermountain West during the day, and then into/across the northern
and central Plains.  With expansive upper ridging across roughly the
southern half of the country, a belt of enhanced mid-level
southwesterlies will reside over the north-central states.

At the surface, progression of the upper trough will support
eastward advance of a lee trough into the central Plains, while a
cold front crosses the northern Rockies and shifts into the northern
Plains.  As these boundaries encounter the moist/strongly unstable
afternoon boundary layer over the Plains, widespread thunderstorms
and associated severe risk is expected. 

...Northern and central Plains/Upper Midwest...
As southerly low-level flow continues to advect rich low-level
moisture northward, diurnal heating will result in a strongly
unstable environment across the Dakotas and Nebraska, and into
Minnesota, during the afternoon.

As a cold front moves across Montana into western North
Dakota/northwestern South Dakota, afternoon thunderstorm development
will occur.  Given the degree of instability, storms are expected to
increase rapidly in coverage, with favorable deep-layer shear
supporting rapid evolution into organized/rotating storms.

Initial supercellular mode supports risk for very large hail and
damaging wind gusts.  With time, linear/potentially bowing clusters
of storms are expected to evolve, and thus expect more widespread
risk for very strong/destructive winds.  As such, ENH risk is being
introduced across portions of the Dakotas and into Minnesota -- for
both the wind and the hail risk.  Storms will continue well into the
evening, with multiple rounds of storms affecting some areas before
storms eventually weaken overnight as they approach the Upper
Mississippi Valley.

Less widespread risk is expected to evolve farther south across
Nebraska -- both with storms developing near an eastward-moving
trough, and with convection moving off the higher terrain to the
west.

...The Rockies...
As a weakening mid-level trough moves across Utah into
Wyoming/Colorado, associated/large-scale ascent will support an
increase in convective coverage through the afternoon and into the
evening hours, as weak/high-based instability evolves in conjunction
with diurnal heating.  

While deep-layer flow will not be particularly strong, the
co*bination of 20 to 30 kt mid-level west-southwesterlies promoting
longer-lived updrafts, and a deep mixed layer promoting potential
for evaporative downdraft enhancement, suggests local risk for
gusty/damaging winds.  Some of the convection evolving over the
higher terrain will spread into/across the High Plains, eventually
encountering greater instability and posing more substantial wind
risk (hence higher-probability risk across South Dakota and
Nebraska).

...Southern Georgia/Florida...
A weak/subtle ribbon of positive vorticity is forecast to shift
southward across the western Atlantic and adjacent southeastern U.S.
today, within weak northerly flow aloft on the eastern fringe of the
dominant upper ridge.  This will help to maintain a weak area of
surface low pressure.

In response, expect development of afternoon thunderstorms from
southern Georgia southward into Florida, particularly focused near
sea-breeze boundaries.  As storms cluster/merge, and then shift
southward with time, a few strong wind gusts can be expected,
primarily during the afternoon and early evening hours before storms
diurnally diminish.

..Goss/Squitieri.. 06/24/2022