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Mesoscale Discussion 1269
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Areas affected...Portions of central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405...

Valid 232302Z - 240100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 405. The greatest severe threat continues to be associated
with a supercell structure over Russell County, where all severe
hazards remain a concern. Other storms may pose a large
hail/damaging gust-threat into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms persist across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 405, amid an environment characterized by 2500+
MLCAPE, 40 kts of effective bulk shear, and locally higher low-level
shear constrained to an east-west oriented baroclinic zone over
central Kansas. Near the boundary, an HP supercell is thriving over
Russell County, KS, where tornadoes were observed and where MRMS
mosaic MESH depicts up to 2.5 inch diameter hail possible. KUEX,
KDDC, and KICT velocity data depict a well-defined mid-level
mesocyclone associated with the Russell County storm, suggesting
that the greatest severe threat across the watch will likely be
associated with this supercell for at least the next few hours,
including the possibility for damaging gusts, severe hail, and
perhaps another tornado.

West of the supercell, scattered thunderstorms continue to pulse in
intensity and these cells may briefly produce a damaging gust or
severe hailstone, especially if the storms can avoid entraining
convectively overturned air from the Russell County supercell. South
and east of the supercell, a pristine airmass remains in place to
support additional severe potential if storms can manage to develop
before sunset.

..Squitieri.. 06/23/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...to*...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38269999 38860085 39550074 40020019 40189945 40099851
            39699741 39059662 38469656 38029695 37999873 38269999