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Mesoscale Discussion 1265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Areas affected...Parts of north-central KS and south-central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 231857Z - 232130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of widely scattered severe storms capable of
large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two will increase
between 20-23Z across parts of KS and NE. Watch issuance will be
likely this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier elevated convection over
north-central KS into southern NE, cloud clearing is allowing for
boundary-layer heating/mixing amid upper 60s dewpoints. As a subtle
midlevel impulse evident in water vapor imagery tracks eastward
across parts of the area in conjunction with a deepening lee trough
over the central High Plains, isolated high-based thunderstorm
development may occur over parts of western KS/NE and track eastward
into the increasingly moist/unstable airmass in the 20-23Z time
frame. While less uncertain, additional convective development will
be possible farther east in north-central KS into south-central NE
-- where steep low-level lapse rates are developing along the
western periphery of the recovering cold pool. 

Current thinking is that a modest increase in midlevel
west-southwesterly flow acco*panying the subtle cyclonic impulse
will result in 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear, which co*bined with
the aforementioned destabilization should support organized
convection including supercells. This activity should generally be
focused from the eastern periphery of steep low-level lapse rates
over northwest KS/southwest NE eastward along and north of a weak
warm front lifting northward in central KS. Given modest midlevel
lapse rates and an elongating mid/upper-level hodograph, large to
very large hail will be possible with any semi-discrete supercell
structures along with locally severe gusts. In addition, a gradual
increase in the easterly low-level flow co*ponent amid a somewhat
sheltered boundary layer is expected as the lee trough deepens. This
would yield favorable clockwise-turning low-level hodographs
supportive of a tornado or two with any longer-lived surface-based
supercells. A watch will likely be needed for parts of the area this
afternoon.

..Weinman/Grams.. 06/23/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...to*...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39230047 39720077 40520079 40910055 40969924 40519812
            39919735 39809675 39249648 38529697 38909948 39230047