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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave
trough will extend from western Ontario southwestward into the
central Plains early D4/Sunday. This shortwave is forecast to
progress eastward across southeast Canada and the Great
Lakes/Northeast from D4/Sunday and D6/Tuesday. A cold front
associated with this system will likely extend from the Upper Great
Lakes southwestward into the southern Plains early D4/Sunday.
Western portion of this front will stall on D4/Sunday, but the
central and eastward portions are expected to continue
eastward/southeastward across the OH and TN Valley and Northeast.
Thunderstorms are possible along this front as it moves
eastward/southeastward, but the front will be displaced ahead of the
stronger shear, limiting the large-scale severe potential.

Westerly flow will remain in the vicinity of the international
border through the middle of next week, to the north of the
persistent southern CONUS upper ridge. Several shortwaves may
progress through this flow, including one that could move into the
Upper Midwest on D6/Tuesday, promoting thunderstorm development. The
magnitude of buoyancy ahead of this system is uncertain, limiting
the predictability of the severe potential.