Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Valid 221700Z - 231200Z

The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed
based on trends in latest hi-res convective models. Showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing across southern CA. MRMS rainfall
estimates show that much of this activity is producing wetting
rainfall, though a few cells are producing little precipitation.
This mixture of wet and dry storms is expected to continue through
the day and into the evening hours. Despite the areas of wetting
rainfall, regional GACCs have reported a few new fire starts from
recent lightning given the dry fuel status. Strong downburst winds
are possible given the dry low-level air sampled in morning
soundings (see the Day 1 Convective Outlook for additional details
on the severe wind potential). 

Across UT, observed trends continue to point towards thunderstorm
development by mid/late afternoon across the Greater Four Corners
region. The dry thunderstorm risk area is expanded to acco*modate
locations where the potential for thunderstorms has increased and
ERC values are above seasonal average.

..Moore.. 06/22/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022/

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging centered within the Plains will retrograde
westward during the day today. A weak cut-off low, currently off the
southern California coast on water vapor imagery, will remain
quasi-stationary before being pushed northeastward by the
retrograding ridge late in the period.

Fire weather concerns will be focused within southern California and
within a small portion of the southern Great Basin. Both areas will
see potential for a few dry thunderstorms as moisture continues to
work its way westward around the ridge. Parts of southern Utah into
far northwest Arizona will likely have lower PWAT values and see
more traditional dry thunderstorms. Within southern California,
current GPS PWAT retrievals show values over 1 inch nudging into the
southern border. Forecast soundings tomorrow indicate that PWAT
values will likely be near or exceed 1 inch over much of the area.
Furthermore, storm coverage could approach scattered categorical
designation given the influence of the cut-off low. Low-levels will
be quite dry. Dewpoint depressions of 40-50 F are depicted in
forecast soundings tomorrow afternoon. Even with fairly high PWAT
values, a mix of wet and isolated dry storms is likely given the
low-level moisture profile. Area fuels are generally at or slightly
below seasonal dryness and will support ignition.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...