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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...AND MIDDLE/LOWER MO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest Friday afternoon and evening. A few severe
thunderstorms are also possible across the Middle/Lower Missouri
Valley Friday evening and overnight.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Guidance is in good agreement that expansive upper ridging will
remain in place across the southern CONUS throughout the period.
Farther north, a shortwave trough, initially extending from the
Alberta/Saskatchewan border into the northern Rockies, is forecast
to progress eastward throughout the day, while deepening/maturing.
By early Saturday morning, this shortwave is expected to feature a
more vertically stacked character, with the mid-level low centered
near the central Saskatchewan/Manitoba border. As this system
progresses eastward, strong mid-level flow throughout its base will
spread eastward into the northern Plains.

A modest surface trough is expected to extend between a pair of
surface lows, one over western SD and the other over western KS,
early Friday. An eastward/southeastward progressing cold front
associated with the previously mentioned shortwave is expected to
overtake this trough, pushing across much of the northern and
central Plains. Thunderstorm development is possible ahead of this
front, particularly over the northern Plains, during the afternoon.
Moderate vertical shear and strong buoyancy should support some
isolated strong to severe storms, but the stronger shear will be
displaced west of the front, likely limiting overall severe
coverage.

A strengthening low-level jet Friday evening will contribute to
strong warm-air advection to the north and east of the KS surface
low as it moves eastward. Ample moisture and steep lapse rates will
support robust buoyancy amid this warm-air advection. Elevated
thunderstorms are expected within this environment across eastern
NE, western IA, and northwest MO. A few of these storms could be
severe.

..Mosier.. 06/22/2022