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Mesoscale Discussion 1246
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Areas affected...Central/eastern Iowa into southwest/south-central
Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 212226Z - 220000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may produce locally damaging winds and small
hail. A watch is not expected this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Signs of more sustained updrafts are evident on visible
satellite within the lower Wisconsin River Valley vicinity as well
as eastern Iowa. Strong surface heating (low/mid 90s F temperatures)
of a moist (low 70s F dewpoints) airmass has contributed to
2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The KARX VWP appears fairly representative
for the regions wind profile. Effective shear of around 30 kts in
Wisconsin drops off slightly with southwestward extent. Most of the
shear is concentrated in the lowest 2-3 km and the shear vector is
parallel to the cold front. Storms that develop will tend to be
somewhat disorganized as storm-relative anvil-level winds will be
weak. Given the 25-30 F surface dewpoint depressions,
strong/damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat with storms
that mature. Small hail could occur early in convective life cycle
as well. Locally greater wind damage threats could evolve should any
clustering occur. Given the uncertainty of storm coverage and lack
of organization, a watch is not expected this afternoon.

..Wendt/Edwards.. 06/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   41009318 41399345 41689310 41889269 42329210 43099090
            43719022 43988979 44098950 43938921 43768918 43178918
            41839056 41189152 40869273 41009318