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Mesoscale Discussion 1245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Areas affected...Parts of northeast Kansas into far northwest
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 212043Z - 212315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of locally damaging gusts and isolated large hail
should increase across parts of northeast Kansas into far northwest
Missouri between 22-00Z. Trends are being monitored for possible
watch issuance this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations depict a quasi-stationary
cold front extending from central Iowa southwestward into central
Kansas. While a shallow cumulus field is evident along the surface
front/wind shift, deeper cumulus is building northward from northern
Oklahoma into southern Kansas -- aided by an influx of steeper
low-level lapse rates. While isolated convection is developing
within this cumulus field, buoyancy is generally limited over
southwest Kansas despite the well-mixed boundary layer. 

As the deepening cumulus field and related updrafts gradually spread
northward and impinge on the frontal boundary, convective coverage
should gradually increase over parts of Kansas. While stronger
midlevel flow is displaced to the cool side of the front,
temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 F amid upper 60s boundary-layer
dewpoints over eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri are
contributing to moderate/strong surface-based buoyancy. Deep-layer
flow/storm motions parallel to the surface front and weakening
MLCINH should favor congealing cold pools with time, and as they
intercept the increasing buoyancy to the east, loosely organized
multicell clusters capable of locally damaging gusts and isolated
large hail will be possible. Given weak large-scale ascent over the
area, there is considerable uncertainty in storm coverage/intensity.
Therefore, trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch could
eventually be needed for this activity. 

Areas farther north along the front in northern Missouri into Iowa
are also being monitored this afternoon, and a severe risk could
eventually evolve over these areas as well.

..Weinman/Grams.. 06/21/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...to*...ICT...

LAT...LON   38109783 38619795 39189753 39479704 39919600 40219514
            40119458 39599429 39109446 38629511 38119628 37889723
            38109783