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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the upper Ohio
Valley eastward through the central Appalachians and into northern
Virginia and Maryland Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Strong to
severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage appear to be the
primary hazard.

...Synopsis...
A large/expansive mid-upper ridge will center over the southern
Plains Wednesday.  A shortwave trough is expected to progress
through the northern periphery of this ridge, beginning the day over
western Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes before continuing eastward
into western Quebec and the Lower Great Lakes.  An upper low is
forecast to begin the period off the Northeast coast, before
gradually drifting westward towards southern New England. 

One other feature of interest is an upper low that is expected to
begin the day off the southern CA coast.  Some modest northward
motion of this upper low is anticipated during the period, placing
the low near the central CA Coast.  Enough mid-level moisture will
acco*pany this upper low to promote isolated thunderstorms over
portions of central and southern CA.

...OH Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic...
Progression of the Quebec/Ontario shortwave will push an attendant
cold front southeastward across the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes
region during the afternoon and evening.  The boundary will be the
primary focus for thunderstorm development during the midday into
the afternoon as the airmass warms/destabilizes.  Model guidance
shows a very moist boundary layer west over the OH Valley with lower
70s deg F dewpoints forecast.  A very unstable airmass (ranging from
2500 J/kg MLCAPE near the Finger Lakes to 4000 J/kg in the OH
Valley) is denoted in forecast soundings but with weak shear. 
Slightly stronger flow (20 kt effective shear) is progged over PA/MD
where the propensity for some storm organization potential will
seemingly exist---mainly in form of multicells.  Isolated gusts
50-65 mph capable of isolated to widely scattered damaging gusts and
perhaps a risk for large hail will acco*pany the stronger storms. 
This activity may push as far south as eastern portions of northeast
NC during the mid evening.

...Southern KS into northern OK...
A large mid-level anticyclone over the Red River Valley with weak to
west-southwesterly mid-level flow located poleward over the KS/OK
border region.  A surface front will beco*e draped west-east across
the area with richer low-level moisture near and north of the
boundary.  Forcing for ascent will be weak at best, but model
guidance indicates that strong heating and weak convergence may
result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing during the
late afternoon.  Steep lapse rates will support a risk for severe
gusts and marginal deep-layer shear (20-kt effective) could result
in a localized risk for marginally severe hail.  This activity will
likely diminish during the evening.

..Smith.. 06/21/2022