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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

The main change for this update is to introduce an additional
isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area to portions of southwest Utah
and far northwest Arizona. Latest hi-res guidance continues to show
a reasonably strong convective signal across the greater Four
Corners region Wednesday afternoon associated with a northward surge
of monsoonal moisture. Thermodynamic profiles on the western
periphery of the moisture plume will likely be favorable for dry
thunderstorms with modest PWAT values and deep, well-mixed sub-cloud
layers. While dry thunderstorms are possible across much of
northwest AZ and central to eastern UT, the risk area is confined to
locations where ERC values are currently above seasonable average. 

Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below)
remain valid.

..Moore.. 06/21/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022/

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will persist on Wednesday. The ridge, centered
within the Plains, is expected to retrograde slightly westward
during the day. Along the southern California coast, the weak closed
low will very slowly weaken and progress northeastward during the
day. The co*bination of the retrograding ridge and the closed low
will bring mid-level moisture northwestward into southern
California. Given strong heating, low-levels will be quite dry. It
is possible that isolated storms will develop within the higher
terrain, with perhaps a few moving into the San Joaquin Valley.
Fuels in some locations are drier than normal for this time of year
and would potentially support lightning-ignited fires.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...