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Mesoscale Discussion 0451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Areas affected...Interstate 40 corridor of central Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...

Valid 120050Z - 120245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues.

SUMMARY...Widely scattered to isolated supercell development remains
possible near the Interstate 44 corridor of central Arkansas, around
Little Rock, through around 9-10 PM CDT.  With general weakening
and/or diminishing trends probable thereafter, a new severe weather
watch is not anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Number of thunderstorms has increased during the past
few hours, but stronger convection has remain focused within a zone
of lower/mid tropospheric warm advection trailing the mid-level
short wave trough now progressing into the lower Ohio Valley.  In
advance of the much more prominent mid/upper troughing now digging
into the Great Basin, more substantive mid-level height rises are
forecast across southern into central Arkansas through 03-05Z. 
Increasing inhibition associated with a co*bination of warming
mid-levels and radiational surface cooling seem likely to result in
weakening/diminishing of boundary-layer convection by late evening. 
However, widely scattered to isolated supercell development may
remain possible through 02-03Z, mainly near the Interstate 44
corridor of central Arkansas.  Although the 00Z sounding from Little
Rock suggests that the low-level hodograph is somewhat marginal for
tornadoes, this may include the continuing risk for a tornado, in
addition to severe hail.

..Kerr.. 04/12/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON   35769353 35489208 35409099 34769040 34539217 34839376
            35349405 35769353