SPC MD 1238
[html]MD 1238 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394... FOR TO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022
Areas affected...to Southeast North Dakota into west-central
Minnesota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394...
Valid 202226Z - 210000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394
continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for wind damage and isolated large hail will
continue in southeast North Dakota into west-central Minnesota.
There is some uncertainty with whether storms can access the most
buoyant air. Nonetheless, even storms slightly behind the boundary
have produced strong/damaging gusts.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms, including a supercell,
continues to move east-northeast in southeastern North Dakota. This
activity has generally intensified as it has encountered greater
buoyancy just to the cool side of the front. Given its current track
and the KMVX radar fine line indicating outflow from a cluster to
the northeast, it is not clear whether the supercell storm will
access the most unstable air farther southeast. Even with
less-than-ideal thermodynamics just behind the boundary, the storm
has had a history of strong/damaging wind gusts and would continue
to pose this threat as it moves into Minnesota. Greater wind-damage
potential will exist should storms interact with the warm sector
airmass. Cells to the south of the supercell in Barnes County, ND
may be better positioned to do this.
..Wendt.. 06/20/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 46649863 47219798 47559709 47629680 47649610 47229576
46559604 46009741 45849845 45899873 46649863
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Source: SPC MD 1238 (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1238.html)