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Mesoscale Discussion 1235
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 202035Z - 202230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for isolated severe potential
this afternoon. The main concerns would be sporadic large hail and
locally strong gusts. Trends are being monitored, though watch
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convective development is ongoing across parts
of central Nebraska near Broken Bow -- south of a quasi-stationary
surface boundary draped across northern Nebraska. While this area is
somewhat removed from the large-scale forcing for ascent
(characterized by neutral midlevel height tendencies), continued
diurnal heating and increasing boundary-layer moisture beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates to the east/northeast of this activity could
allow for some intensification during the next couple hours. While
deep-layer shear remains modest (25-30 kt of effective shear),
veering in the lowest 3 km could support a few loosely organized
updrafts capable of isolated large hail and locally strong gusts.
Given the anticipated localized/brief nature of the threat, watch
issuance is not expected.

..Weinman/Grams.. 06/20/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40800001 41330014 41830000 42149944 42459869 42459811
            42149760 41689732 40959773 40479880 40509966 40800001