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Mesoscale Discussion 1232
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Areas affected...far eastern WY...northern NE Panhandle...southwest
SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 201815Z - 202015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to initially develop/intensify
over southeast WY and eventually spread northeast into the NE
Panhandle and southwest SD.  Isolated large hail and severe gusts
are possible with the stronger storms.  A severe thunderstorm watch
is likely over south-central SD extending west/southwest into the
northern part of the NE Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a couple of
thunderstorms developing north of Cheyenne, WY with a stratus deck
south of the Badlands straddling the NE/SD border.  Surface analysis
indicates a surface front extends from northeast CO northeastward
into Cherry Co., NE and into northeast SD.  To the west of the
boundary, strong heating and relatively moist low levels (surface
dewpoints 60-65 deg F) are contributing to a destabilizing airmass
to the northeast of the WY thunderstorm activity.

As the zone of strongest mid-level forcing for ascent pivots
northeastward across WY this afternoon in conjunction with a
shortwave trough, thunderstorms will preferentially develop
initially over WY.  Continued heating and the leading edge of
appreciable ascent will weaken/erode the remaining cap on a
localized basis and additional storm development is expected. 
Widely scattered storms are forecast by mid-late afternoon with
several of the stronger storms being capable of a risk for large
hail and severe gusts.  This activity will probably merge to some
degree and consolidate into a cluster by the early evening with the
threat for hail/wind correspondingly increasing.

..Smith/Grams.. 06/20/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42910463 44410373 44770267 44390132 43450055 42360101
            41760309 41760408 42250460 42910463