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Topic: SPC Jun 20, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Read 38 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC Jun 20, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC Jun 20, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[html]SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
     
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
SD...SOUTHEAST ND...AND NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across the
northern Great Plains from mid-afternoon through this evening.
Destructive wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple tornadoes are
possible.

...Northern Great Plains...
A vigorous shortwave trough near the UT/ID/WY border area will eject
northeast into ND tonight, around the northwest periphery of a
closed high over the Mid-South. Attendant mid-level jet will
strengthen as it spreads from the central Rockies towards the Red
River Valley. A wavy surface front extending southwest from a
primary cyclone over northwest Ontario will move little today, and
then begin to accelerate eastward tonight in response to the
ejecting mid-level trough and convective outflows. A plume of upper
60s to lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints will be maintained along
the front from north-central/northeast SD and ahead of it across MN.
The dryline should effectively mix into south-central SD through
central NE where mid to upper 90s surface temperatures beco*e
co*mon. Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, the largest MLCAPE of
2500-4000 J/kg should beco*e established across MN into the eastern
Dakotas, with a bent-back plume of moderate buoyancy extending
southwest along and to the cool side of the surface front into the
NE Panhandle.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid afternoon in
advance of the ejecting mid-level trough, within the post-frontal
environment from eastern WY into the NE Panhandle. Convection will
subsequently spread northeast across the Dakotas, as well as likely
develop separately along the baroclinic zone over the Red River
Valley through early evening. Vertical shear will be strongest along
and west of the stalled front, especially within the strengthening
500-mb southwesterly jet. Thus, the best chance for long-track
supercells with significant severe hail amid highly elongated and
nearly straight-line hodographs should be across northwest NE to
central SD. As this activity approaches larger buoyancy during the
evening, and likely impinges on downshear convection along the
front, multiple MCSs with sustained bowing segments will probably
develop, increasing the threat for severe wind gusts, some of which
may reach 80-90 mph. Greater tornado potential is more nebulous, but
a focused corridor for a couple tornadoes is apparent across
north-central SD and southeast ND into northwest MN with any
supercells/bows along this portion of the initially stalled front.
Overall severe potential should diminish overnight through a
co*bination of extensive convective overturning and increasing
warm-sector MLCIN.

...Central/south FL...
Scattered pulse thunderstorms will again develop along sea breezes
this afternoon within a large buoyancy environment characterized by
near 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Weak vertical shear will limit potential
for more organized convection, but localized damaging downbursts
will be possible in the strongest cells.

..Grams/Weinman.. 06/20/2022


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Source: SPC Jun 20, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html)