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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of large hail and/or damaging wind gusts are
possible from the northern High Plains across the Dakotas and into
the Upper Midwest today.

...Synopsis...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough continuing to
progress eastward within the northern Rockies and the northern Great
Basin. This feature will eventually begin to pivot northeastward and
accelerate towards Monday evening/overnight. At the surface, a cold
front currently analyzed within the central Dakotas southwestward
into the central High Plains will also shift eastward into the Upper
Midwest through the day.

...Dakotas/Minnesota...
Strong heating ahead of the front in an airmass with mid/upper 60s
to low 70s dewpoints will lead to large buoyancy (2000-4000 J/kg) by
afternoon. Scattered storms are expected to develop within the Red
River Valley vicinity by mid-afternoon. Within the warm sector,
effective shear magnitudes may only reach 20-30 kts and remain
parallel to the front. Initial storms would be capable of marginally
severe hail before growing upscale with time and beco*ing more of a
wind damage threat. Once a cold pool develops, storms would likely
push eastward into northern Minnesota.

Farther west, some of the development within the High Plains may
track along the front. Aided by the ejecting mid-level speed max, a
cluster or two could beco*e better organized within central South
Dakota and track northeastward. This scenario could mean an area of
greater wind damage potential. However, it is not clear whether this
activity will be able to remain in the warm sector or exist just to
the cool side of the front.

...Northern High Plains...
Mid/upper 50s F dewpoints remain within eastern Montana Sunday
evening. This moisture is expected to linger into today. While some
mixing is expected, at least low 50s F dewpoints should remain this
afternoon. Cold air aloft should allow 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE to
develop. Storms are expected to initiate along a weak surface
boundary within the High Plains. Other development may occur within
the higher terrain and move into greater moisture to the east.
Effective shear east of the upper-level low will be a modest 30-40
kts and be parallel to the boundary. Mid-level lapse rates and long
hodographs will mean large hail will be possible with the more
discrete structures. Otherwise, updraft seeding/storm interactions
will likely lead to some upscale growth of this activity as it moves
east into the Dakotas. Wind damage would beco*e more a threat as
this occurs.

Close to the upper-level low, a few storms may develop. Cold
temperatures aloft and long hodographs suggest that a marginally
sever hail and wind damage threat would be possible despite more
limited buoyancy.

..Wendt/Goss.. 06/20/2022