Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Mesoscale Discussion 0448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Areas affected...portions of north-central and northeast Texas and
south-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 112146Z - 112315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is expected
along the dryline this afternoon and evening. Supercells with a
primary risk for of large hail, damaging wind gusts will be
possible. A weather watch is possible though uncertainty remains
high.

DISCUSSION...As of 2130Z, visible imagery showed deepening congestus
towers along a dryline observed across north central Texas and
south-central Oklahoma. To the east of the dryline, very warm
temperatures (80s to 90s F) and deep surface moisture (dewpoints in
the low to mid 60s F) are supporting 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Zonal
mid-level flow associated with a low amplitude shortwave trough
crossing the region was enhancing mid-level shear with VWPS and
mesoanalysis showing 40-50 kt EBWD orthogonal to the dryline. This
in co*bination with deep and veering wind profiles will
conditionally support discrete sueprcellular convection. Very steep
mid-level lapse rates (~9 C/km) from observed and model soundings
will favor large hail with any sustained updrafts. Damaging winds
are also possible given the warm surface temperatures and fairly
large T/TD spreads. The tornado risk appears lower owing to weaker
surface flow and some low-level veering. Experimental WOFS guidance
has shown several discrete updrafts initiating over the last few
runs and posing a severe risk into this evening. While uncertainty
remains high, some severe risk appears possible across south-central
Oklahoma and north Texas this evening. Conditions are being
monitored for a possible weather watch.

..Lyons/Hart.. 04/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33529707 33929688 34139686 34439670 34569634 34569589
            34549554 34389509 34249492 34039473 33889451 33609425
            33339434 33109445 32649477 32199521 31489603 31249660
            31169712 31199739 31289769 31509796 31869792 32069784
            32649742 33139725 33529707