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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Valid 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND...

...SUMMARY...
Very large hail to tennis ball size and severe gusts to 75 mph are
possible, mainly this afternoon into early tonight across eastern
Montana and western North Dakota.  More isolated storms with
strong/damaging wind gusts may occur from western Colorado to
western South Dakota, and across the Florida Peninsula.

...Eastern MT/western ND through early tonight...
The deep midlevel trough over the Great Basin is beginning to move
slowly eastward, and an embedded speed maxima over UT this morning
will eject north-northeastward on its eastern periphery toward
eastern MT.  At the surface, a cyclone will develop slowly
north-northeastward along a baroclinic zone from southwest ND toward
southwest MB.  Boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower
70s will persist in a corridor well east of the surface cyclone and
a trailing lee trough across the High Plains, while dewpoints remain
in the upper 50s to mid 60s immediately west of the low track in the
northeasterly surface flow across eastern MT and northwest ND.  The
presence of moderate buoyancy coincident with this northeasterly
flow contributes to long hodographs and strong storm-relative inflow
favorable for supercells, with large CAPE and much weaker deep-layer
vertical shear farther east in the warm sector across ND.  Thus, the
primary threat area for bowing segments/supercells with the
potential to produce very large hail near tennis ball size and
severe gusts near 75 mph will be from eastern MT into western ND,
near and just west of the cyclone track/front this afternoon through
early tonight.

...Western SD/eastern WY to western CO through late evening...
Eastward progress of the Great Basin midlevel trough will bring
stronger midlevel flow farther east co*pared to previous days. 
Despite widespread clouds to slow surface heating, long/straight
hodographs could support some organized storm structures within the
monsoonal moisture plume across western CO, with some potential for
a few strong-severe outflow gusts.  Farther northeast, midlevel flow
will be a little weaker, but inverted-v profiles will favor a few
strong-severe outflow gusts with high-based storm clusters late this
afternoon/evening near the lee trough.

...Central/western FL Peninsula this afternoon...
Another day of largely diurnal convection is expected, with
thunderstorm development focused by a weak front drifting into north
FL, and local sea breeze circulations farther south.  Weak
northeasterly midlevel flow suggests that multicell clusters will
spread southwestward this afternoon.  The strongest storms will have
the potential for a few damaging downbursts given precipitation
loading with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, and downdrafts aided by DCAPE
near 1000 J/kg.

..Thompson/Dean.. 06/19/2022