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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An expansive upper ridge is forecast to remain in place across the
southern third of the CONUS through the weekend. This upper ridge
will displace the stronger westerly flow aloft into the northern
third of the CONUS (in the vicinity of the international
border), limiting the severe potential across the southern third of
the CONUS.  

Some strong to severe storms are possible across the Middle/Upper OH
Valley and Northeast on D4/Wednesday as a cold front moves through
the region. Vertical shear will be modest and the stronger forcing
for ascent should be well north of the region, casting doubt to the
overall severe coverage and precluding an outlook area.

Guidance suggests a weak cold front may move into the Upper Midwest
on D5/Thursday, but uncertainty regarding its strength as well as
convective inhibition limits predictability. A potentially strong
shortwave trough may move through the northern Plains and Upper
Midwest D6/Friday or D7/Saturday, but variability within the
guidance restrains forecast confidence.