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Mesoscale Discussion 0447
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Areas affected...portions of southeast Oklahoma and extreme
northeast Texas into western and central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 111934Z - 112130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storm development is likely
over the next few hours. Scattered damaging gusts, very large hail,
and a few tornadoes are all likely, and a strong tornado or two is
also possible. A Tornado Watch issuance will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...An elongated 1006 mb surface low continues to meander
east across northern Texas, with the triple point situated along the
Red River near GLE, and a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone draped
along a line roughly from ADM to FSM per latest surface
observations. A deepening cumulus field has already beco*e
established across eastern OK into northeast TX and western AR. The
approach of a modest 500 mb vort max over the Southern Plains
co*bined with adequate diurnal heating should foster an increase in
thunderstorm development near the triple point and along the
quasi-stationary baroclinic zone over the next few hours. The last
few deterministic HRRR and Warn-on-Forecast ensemble runs suggest
that storms may beco*e established as early as 20Z. 8.5 C/km
mid-level lapse rates overspreading mid 60s F surface dewpoints are
contributing to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE, with MLCINH continuing to
erode with time. 

Modest veering/strengthening of the surface-700 mb flow yields
modestly curved hodographs (via SRX and LZK VAD profilers), with
supercell structures likely given the initial discrete storm mode
expected. Damaging gusts and large hail may acco*pany any storm that
can mature, and 2+ inch hail may also acco*pany the longer-lived
robust supercells given the steep mid-level lapse rates. While the
low-level jet continues to weaken and shift eastward towards the MS
River, enough low-level directional shear should promote low-level
rotation and tornado potential with the more persistent supercells.
If supercells can remain discrete while propagating eastward into AR
(closer to the low-level jet axis), a strong tornado or two may also
occur. A Tornado Watch will be needed soon.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33529699 34749558 35559441 35719322 35609207 35189163
            34759162 33939222 33479328 33189416 33149512 33169582
            33529699