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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PERMIAN BASIN INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

The primary changes to this outlook are to expand the Critical area
into more of southeast Colorado. Strong downslope winds and very low
RH is possible as the surface low shifts eastward during the
afternoon. The Extremely Critical area was also expanded southward
into the Permian Basin. Given the exceptionally dry fuels,
meteorological conditions will be sufficient for extreme fire
behavior. Dry and windy conditions are possible into the Nebraska
Panhandle and western/central South Dakota. However, RH remains
quite uncertain that far north. Trends will be monitored for
potential Elevated highlights.

..Wendt.. 04/11/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022/

...Synopsis...
A potent shortwave trough and 80-90 kt mid-level jet streak will
quickly eject eastward out of the Rockies and over the Plains
Tuesday. As the trough takes on a prominent negative tilt, a sub-990
mb lee low will move quickly northeast across the central Plains
toward the upper Midwest. Trailing the low, a sharp dryline will
bisect the warm sector with hot and dry surface conditions expected
to its west. Within this zone, the overlap of strong unidirectional
flow through out the column will support widespread sustained winds
of 30-40 mph and frequent gusts to 50+ mph. Ongoing extreme drought
and exceptionally dry fuels will support Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions and the potential for a dangerous fire weather
outbreak. 

...A significant fire weather outbreak is possible across the
southern and central High Plains Tuesday....

...Southern/Central High Plains...
As the upper trough ejects eastward over the central and northern
Plains Tuesday, very strong mid-level flow (80-90 kt) will
overspread an increasing warm and dry boundary layer west of the
dryline across the southern and central High Plains. Strong daytime
heating and subsidence beneath the ribbon of strong momentum aloft
will aid in the development of a prominent low-level thermal ridge
with temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s F from central KS
southwestward across western OK/TX. Coincident with the thermal
ridge, deep vertical mixing and the hot temperatures will support
very dry surface conditions with widespread surface RH below 10%. An
overlapping southwesterly low-level jet of 40-60 kts will bolster
flow already enhanced by the strong surface pressure trough/dryline
across western KS, TX and OK. Widespread sustained surface winds of
30-40 mph are expected with frequent gusts to 50-60 mph possible. 

Conditions farther north into the central Plains may take somewhat
longer to develop Tuesday morning owing to lingering mid-level cloud
cover and a more diffuse moisture gradient. Closer to the surface
low, low-level mass response should be quite strong supporting
widespread winds of 25-40 mph within the drying airmass. Fuels are
less volatile with northern extent, but remain overall favorable for
large fire development/spread. High-end critical conditions appear
likely into eastern Nebraska with Elevated conditions possible
farther west where humidity is forecast to be higher. 

Fuels across the Plains remain highly receptive to fire
starts/spread owing to severe drought and several preceding days of
Critically dry and windy conditions. ERC values in the 90-95th
percentile are ubiquitous across the southern High Plains setting
the stage for exceptionally volatile fire weather conditions. High
confidence exists in several hours of Extremely Critical fire
weather conditions developing beneath the 850-700 mb jet core from
west TX, through the Panhandles, western OK, and into western KS
where high-end parameter space for both meteorological conditions
and fuel states exists.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...