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Mesoscale Discussion 1215
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Oklahoma...Arkansas...and
northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 181733Z - 182030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe
potential this afternoon. Isolated strong to severe microbursts and
perhaps marginally severe hail will be possible. Watch issuance is
not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows an increasingly
agitated cumulus field extending from eastern Oklahoma into parts of
Arkansas and northwest Mississippi -- where diurnal destabilization
is occurring south of a quasi-stationary surface boundary draped
across the Middle Mississippi Valley. As diurnal heating continues
amid orographic circulations over the higher terrain in eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas, isolated to widely scattered
convection should develop during the afternoon hours. The modified
12Z LZK sounding indicates steep midlevel lapse rates atop a
moist/well-mixed boundary layer and minimal inhibition. While
deep-layer flow/shear is weak across the area, isolated strong to
severe downbursts and perhaps marginally severe hail will be
possible with the stronger/deeper pulsating updrafts. Currently, the
coverage and organization of strong to severe storms appears too
limited for watch consideration, though trends will be monitored.

..Weinman/Grams.. 06/18/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   33869383 34389528 34699567 35229569 35529526 35529484
            35189342 34889258 34699148 34499074 34348987 33908972
            33319002 33229123 33549277 33869383