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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

[html]SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
         

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0451 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 161200Z

An upper-level ridge over the West will begin to shift eastward over
the central US and Great Lakes this weekend through early next week
as an upper-level trough moves into the West. Above normal
temperatures will shift from the northern Intermountain West Day
3/Saturday to over the northern Plains and Great Lakes Day 4/Sunday
into early next week. Scattered precipitation will fall across the
northern half to two-thirds of the West, with mountain snow,
especially in the northern Rockies. An upper low will slowly migrate
east-northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley over the Southeast
through mid-next week. Heavy precipitation is expected from Florida
and the Deep South through the Carolinas. 

...Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday: northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest...
Southerly flow will strengthen over the Plains, especially the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest this weekend through early
next week. With above normal temperatures and the dry return flow,
elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely Day 4/Sunday
- Day 5/Monday with a 40% probability introduced. There remains some
uncertainty regarding when/where the low-level moisture will
increase across the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Fuels guidance indicates receptive fuels, including certain fuels
entering or already in there spring dip. 

There is the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms from the
Nebraska Panhandle into the western Dakotas Day 4/Sunday - Day
5/Monday. However, there is too much forecast uncertainty to include
probabilities at this time. 

...Great Basin into the Southwest...
As the deep upper-level trough moves into the West, dry/windy
conditions will overspread the Intermountain West, especially from
the Great Basin through the Southwest. The dry/windy conditions will
start Day 3/Saturday from the interior Pacific Northwest and
western/northern Great Basin and shift south/east across the
Intermountain West through Day 6/Tuesday. Recent precipitation has
reduced fuel receptiveness across these areas, but portions of the
Southwest may need to be included in future outlooks, especially if
probabilities of high-end critical to extremely critical conditions
increase.

..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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Source: SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/)